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Table 3 Relative risks (RR) with 95% confidence interval (95% CI), goodness-of-fit (Aikaike Inference Criteria - AIC) and discrimination (C statistic/area under ROC curve - AUC) of univariate models for predicting caries progression (cavitation—ICDAS 5 or 6, restoration or the tooth extraction due to caries) on occlusal sites examined, followed by one year—section A: all non-frankly cavitated surfaces (ICDAS scores 0–4) at the baseline, section B: only non-cavitated surfaces (ICDAS 0–2) included at the baseline

From: How combining different caries lesions characteristics may be helpful in short-term caries progression prediction: model development on occlusal surfaces of primary teeth

  

All surfaces

    
 

Null Model

Model 1

Model 2

Model 3

Model 4

Model 5

 

RR (95%IC)

RR (95%IC)

RR (95%IC)

RR (95%IC)

RR (95%IC)

RR (95%IC)

Colour

      

ref. Similar to sound

      

Whitish fissure

 

5.17 (2.21 to 12.11)

    

Yellowish fissure

 

1.42 (0.55 to 3.69)

    

Black or dark fissure

 

3.48 (1.60 to 7.54)

    

Lustre

      

ref. Presence

      

Absence

  

1.70 (0.98 to 2.96)

   

Surface integrity

      

ref. Noncavitated

      

Cavitated

   

4.95 (2.78 to 8.80)

  

Texture

      

ref. Smooth enamel

      

Rough enamel

    

2.15 (1.19 to 3.91)

 

"Clinical" depth

      

ref. Sound

      

Enamel

     

2.27 ( 1.12 to 4.63)

Dentine

     

9.50 (3.98 to 22.68)

_ cons

0.03 (0.02 to 0.06)

0.19 (0.88 to 1.96)

0.03 (0.01 to 0.05)

0.03 (0.02 to 0.05)

0.03 (0.01 to 0.05)

0.02 (0.01 to 0.04)

Random effects parameters

      

Estimate (95%CI)

      

Patient- sd (cons)

1.58 (1.10 to 2.72)

1.31 (0.87 to 1.96)

1.48 (1.02 to 2.14)

1.15 (0.76 to 1.75)

1.39 (0.94 to 2.04)

1.06 (0.67 to 1.68)

Model goodness-of-fit and Discrimination

      

 AIC

389.4624

376.8412

387.96460

364.7552

385.2818

369.7105

 C statistic (AUC)

0.9653

0.9609

0.9651

0.9607

0.9661

0.9591

 95%CI

0.9516 to 0.9790

0.9407 to 0.9810

0.9513 to 0.9789

0.9437 to 0.9778

0.9530 to 0.9791

0.9405 to 0.9776

  

Non cavitated surfaces (subgroup analysis)

    
 

Null Model

Model 1

Model 2

Model 3

Model 4

Model 7

 

RR (95%IC)

RR (95%IC)

RR (95%IC)

RR (95%IC)

RR (95%IC)

RR (95%IC)

Color

      

ref. Similar to sound

      

Whitish fissure

 

3.06 (0.93 to 10.07)

    

Yellowish fissure

 

1.39 (0.49 to 3.93)

    

Black or dark fissure

 

1.19 (0.39 to 3.65)

    

Lustre

      

ref. Presence

      

Absence

  

1.66 (0.73 to 3.80)

   

Surface integrity

      

ref. Noncavitated

      

Cavitated

   

  

Texture

      

ref. Smooth enamel

      

Rough enamel

    

1.95 (0.85 to 4.47)

 

"Clinical" depth

      

ref. Sound

      

Enamel

     

1.40 ( 0.62 to 3.20)

Dentine

     

8.87 (0.98 to 80.15)

_ cons

0.01 (0.004 to 0.04)

0.01 (0.003 to 0.03)

0.01 (0.003 to 0.03)

0.01 (0.03 to 0.03)

0.01 (0.004 to 0.04)

Random effects parameters

      

Estimate (95%CI)

      

Patient- sd (cons)

1.86 (1.11 to 3.11)

1.78 (1.06 to 2.99)

1.80 (1.08 to 3.00)

1.76 (1.06 to 2.96)

1.62 (0.97 to 2.75)

Model goodness-of-fit and discrimination

      

 AIC

218.1902

221.0009

218.80930

not applicable

217.7614

218.84

 C statistic (AUC)

0.9160

0.9164

0.8983

not applicable

0.9081

0.9519

 95%CI

0.8827 to 0.9496

0.8793 to 0.9536

0.8536 to 0.9429

 

0.8695 to 0.9467

(0.9405 to 0.9775)