Cost-effectiveness of caries excavations in different risk groups − a micro-simulation study

BMC Oral Health

Table 1 Input variables for different risk groups

Parameter	Variable	Disease burden low risk	Estimated from	Disease burden high risk	Estimated from
Number of decayed teeth at age 18	DT	0.01	[17]	0.11	[17]
Number of filled teeth at age 18	FT	0.08	[17]	0.54	[17]
Number of missing teeth at age 18	MT	0.01	[17]	0.01	[17]
		Probability (p) low risk		Probability (p) high risk
Development of a dentinal caries lesion	p_develope	p = 0.1694e^-0.155a	[17]	p = 198.111e^-0.414a	[17]
No utilization of dental services	p_utilization	p = −0.0074a² + 1.0156a + 11.318	[29]	p = −0.0282a² + 2.4366a + 11.570	[29]
Progression of a lesion if untreated	p_progress	p = 0.014	[4]	p = 0.43	[4]
Failure of a composite restoration	p_fail_composite	p (range) = 0.0081 - 0.0094	[15]	OR (95% CI) = 2.76 (2.01-3.79)*	[21–23]

e = 2.718281828459045235.
Transition probabilities either depended on an individual’s age (a) or were constant over the lifetime. If ranges or confidence intervals were available, random sampling between those ranges or intervals was performed.
*Risk of a failing composite restoration was adjusted for high compared with low risk individuals, whilst for all other variables, separate probabilities had been calculated.
DT decayed teeth, Ft filled teeth, MT missing teeth, OR Odds Ratios.

ISSN: 1472-6831