Table 4 Relative risks (RR) with 95% confidence interval (95% CI), goodness-of-fit (Aikaike Inference Criteria - AIC) and discrimination (C statistic - Area under of ROC curve - AUC) of models for predicting caries progression (cavitation—ICDAS 5 or 6, restoration or the tooth extraction due to caries) after one year considering the combination of clinical features related to caries lesion activity status on examined occlusal surfaces
All lesions | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Combinations with surface integrity | Combinations with texture | Combinations of n parameters (irrespective which) | ||||||||
Null Model | Model 6 | Model 7 | Model 8 | Model 9 | Model 10 | Model 11 | Model 12 | Model 13 | Model 14 | |
RR (95%IC) | RR (95%IC) | RR (95%IC) | RR (95%IC) | RR (95%IC) | RR (95%IC) | RR (95%IC) | RR (95%IC) | RR (95%IC) | RR (95%IC) | |
Texture + Depth | ||||||||||
Ref. Smooth surface + No lesion | ||||||||||
Smooth surface + Enamel lesion | 1.81 (0.75 to 4.38) | |||||||||
Smooth surface + Dentine lesion | 9.39 (2.72 to 32.24) | |||||||||
Rough surface + Enamel lesion | 2.63 (1.22 to 5.64) | |||||||||
Rough surface + Dentine lesion | 9.84 (3.80 to 25.50) | |||||||||
Color + Texture | ||||||||||
ref. No color + smooth area | ||||||||||
Whitish + smooth area | 3.28 (1.12 to 9.64) | |||||||||
Yellowish + smooth area | 1.59 (0.41 to 6.09) | |||||||||
Dark brownish/black + smooth area | 2.81 (0.96 to 8.20) | |||||||||
Whitish + rough area | 7.58 (2.80 to 19.90) | |||||||||
Yellowish + rough area | 1.37 (0.45 to 4.16) | |||||||||
Dark brownish/black + rough area | 4.12 (1.79 to 9.48) | |||||||||
Cavitation + Texture | ||||||||||
ref. Non-cavitated + smooth area | ||||||||||
Non-cavitated + rough area | 2.06 (0.95 to 4.44) | |||||||||
Cavitated + smooth area | 6.64 (2.79 to 15.81) | |||||||||
Cavitated + rough area | 6.55 (3.08 to 13.95) | |||||||||
Texture + Lustre | ||||||||||
ref. Smooth area with lustre | ||||||||||
Smooth area without lustre | 2.85 (1.15 to 7.05) | |||||||||
Rough area with lustre | 3.46 (1.49 to 8.06) | |||||||||
Rough area without lustre | 2.40 (1.21 to 4.75) | |||||||||
Cavitation + Lustre | ||||||||||
Non-cavitated with lustre | ||||||||||
Non-cavitated without lustre | 1.61 (0.75 to 3.49) | |||||||||
Cavitated with lustre | 5.72 (2.56 to 12.70) | |||||||||
Cavitated without lustre | 6.06 (2.91 to 12.63) | |||||||||
Color + Cavitation | ||||||||||
ref. No color + smooth area | ||||||||||
Whitish + smooth area | 3.07 (1.07 to 8.79) | |||||||||
Yellowish + smooth area | 1.45 (0.55 to 3.85) | |||||||||
Dark brownish/black + smooth area | 1.49 (0.50 to 4.41) | |||||||||
Whitish + rough area | 8.98 (3.47 to 23.27) | |||||||||
Yellowish + rough area | 2.37 (0.28 to 20.11) | |||||||||
Dark brownish/black + rough area | 6.86 (3.00 to 15.67) | |||||||||
Cavitation + Other signs for activity* | ||||||||||
Non-cavitated + No other activity sign or only one activity sign | ||||||||||
Non-cavitation + Opaque + Rough + No dark area | 0.74 (0.29 to 1.89) | |||||||||
Non-cavitated + No other activity sign or only one sign activity sign | 1.60 (0.33 to 7.72) | |||||||||
Cavitated + Opaque + Rough + No dark area | 2.00 (0.60 to 6.62) | |||||||||
None present positive factor | ||||||||||
1 positive factor | 3.26 (1.49 to 7.15) | |||||||||
At least 2 positive factors | 3.50 (1.61 to 6.95) | |||||||||
Number of factor combined (Lustre/Texture/Color) | ||||||||||
None present positive factor | 3.13 (1.67 to 6.57) | |||||||||
At least 1 positive factor | ||||||||||
_ cons | 0.03 (0.02 to 0.06) | 0.02 (0.01 to 0.04) | 0.02 (0.01 to 0.05) | 0.03 (0.02 to 0.06) | 0.02 (0.01 to 0.04) | 0.02 (0.01 to 0.05) | 0.02 (0.01 to 0.05) | 0.02 (0.009 to 0.04) | 0.02 (0.008 to 0.04) | 0.02 (0.92 to 1.97) |
Random effects parameters | ||||||||||
Patient- sd (cons) | 1.58 (1.10 to 2.72) | 1.12 (0.74 to 1.71) | 1.13 (0.75 to 1.71) | 1.54 (1.06 to 2.23) | 1.13 (0.74 to 1.73) | 1.30 (0.88 to 1.93) | 1.05 (0.66 to 1.67) | 1.23 (0.82 to 1.87) | 1.34 (0.92 to 1.97) | 1.35 (0.92 to 1.97) |
Model goodness-of-fit and Discrimination | ||||||||||
AIC | 389.4624 | 365.49730 | 367.28350 | 393.43680 | 369.10040 | 383.82820 | 372.8669 | 380.19200 | 380.21180 | 378.21840 |
C statistic (AUC) | 0.9616 | 0.9619 | 0.9612 | 0.9581 | 0.9631 | 0.9560 | 0.9606 | 0.9622 | 0.9651 | |
0.9444 to 0.9788 | 0.9446 to 0.9792 | 0.9411 to 0.9814 | 0.9389 to 0.9773 | 0.9473 to 0.9789 | 0.9359 to 0.9762 | 0.9495 to 0.9806 | 0.9430 to 0.9814 | 0.9514 to 0.9788 | ||